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Published method

Channel Shift Model: formulas, assumptions and a worked example

How the Channel Shift Model turns a planned move of voice contacts into chat, bot or email into net agent minutes freed, what those minutes are worth after bot fees, the cost of the transition and the resolution rate at which the shift breaks even.

Method version 1.2, published 2026-09-28.

What each number is

Volumes shifted, displaced and bounced back are arithmetic on your inputs. Resolution, displacement, eligibility and the residual complexity curve are assumptions; the opening profile is labelled heuristic and a driver still at it grades Directional. Net realizable is a conditional forecast: freed minutes become cash only through the capacity action you select, while bot fees are cash and netted in full.

Formulas

Eligible voice

Monthly contacts × voice share × eligible share

The shift is capped at this pool; a larger request is scaled down and disclosed.

Per target channel

Shifted = contacts × shift points; resolved = shifted × resolution; displaced = resolved × displacement; bounced back = shifted − resolved

Resolved contacts that do not replace a voice call are new demand and earn no saving.

Residual voice handle time

Voice effective minutes × (1 + curve × shifted ÷ voice contacts)

The calls left behind are harder. The curve is mild, moderate or severe.

Departing handle time

(Voice contacts × voice minutes − remaining calls × residual minutes) ÷ displaced

Total voice minutes are conserved, so the curve fixes how simple the departing calls must be. The tool shows it so the curve can be checked.

Net minutes freed

Displaced × departing minutes − target channel minutes − bounced × departing minutes × (return factor − 1)

A bounced call always existed; only its extra friction is new cost. Chat and email minutes are handle time ÷ concurrency.

Net realizable

Net minutes × hourly wage × marginal load ÷ 60 × the capacity action's share − bot fees

Bot fees are paid on every bot attempt, resolved or bounced.

FTE freed

Net minutes ÷ (22 days × 8 hours × 60 × 70% productive)

A capacity equivalent of 7,392 productive minutes per FTE a month.

Transition

Chat FTE added × (training per agent + ramp weeks × 5 days × 8 hours × loaded wage × 30% ramp loss)

Payback is transition ÷ monthly net realizable.

Break-even

The resolution rate of the largest shift at which net realizable crosses zero

Solved on whole points and interpolated between them.

Rules and bands

Do not approve yet · Net realizable below zero

The read gives the break-even resolution and the gap to it.

Approve only with pilot · Net positive with any risk flag ticked

Complaint, regulated, save-risk, vulnerable, identity or high-emotion volume needs a pilot before rollout.

Approve · Net positive, no risk flag

If break-even is under 1%, the read says to check the bot fee and return factor first.

Implausible departing time · Under 2 minutes, or at or below zero

The curve is set too high for this shift; completeness holds Directional.

The verdict is a property of the answer and never caps a confidence axis. A bot under $0.10 a contact carrying volume is flagged as near-free and holds completeness Directional.

Every constant and where it comes from

100,000 contacts per month · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. A volume still at this value grades evidence Directional.

70 percent of volume · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Voice share of the current mix.

7 minutes · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. A voice handle time still at this value grades evidence Directional.

1 concurrent contacts · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Voice is one contact at a time.

15 percent of volume · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Chat share of the current mix.

10 minutes · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Chat handle time.

2.5 concurrent contacts · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Typical chat session concurrency.

10 percent of volume · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Email share of the current mix.

5 minutes · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Email handle time.

1 concurrent contacts · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Email worked one at a time.

5 percent of volume · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Bot share of the current mix.

0.5 USD per bot contact · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. A bot fee still at this value grades cost evidence Directional when the bot carries volume.

60 percent of voice · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. An eligibility still at this value grades evidence Directional.

10 points of total volume · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Planned shift into chat.

10 points of total volume · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Planned shift into the bot.

0 points of total volume · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Planned shift into email. Ships at zero.

85 percent resolved · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. A chat resolution still at this value grades evidence Directional when chat carries a shift.

65 percent resolved · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. A bot resolution still at this value grades evidence Directional when the bot carries a shift.

80 percent resolved · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. An email resolution still at this value grades evidence Directional when email carries a shift.

80 percent displacing voice · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. A chat displacement still at this value grades evidence Directional when chat carries a shift.

70 percent displacing voice · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. A bot displacement still at this value grades evidence Directional when the bot carries a shift.

80 percent displacing voice · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. An email displacement still at this value grades evidence Directional when email carries a shift.

1.2 multiple of a normal call · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Friction of a recovery call after a failed shift.

1,500 USD per added agent · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Transition training cost.

4 weeks · Heuristic, no published source

Default so the tool opens on a runnable case. Transition ramp length.

0.08 residual AHT uplift per unit of shift share · Heuristic, no published source

Mild complexity curve. Easy volume leaves and residual voice gets slightly harder.

0.15 residual AHT uplift per unit of shift share · Heuristic, no published source

Moderate complexity curve. The typical support environment and the shipped choice.

0.3 residual AHT uplift per unit of shift share · Heuristic, no published source

Severe complexity curve. Remaining voice work becomes materially harder.

22 workdays per month · Heuristic, no published source

Planning convention for productive time per FTE.

8 paid hours per day · Heuristic, no published source

Planning convention for productive time per FTE and for ramp cost.

0.7 share of paid time · Heuristic, no published source

Share of paid time an agent spends on contacts, used to convert freed minutes to FTE.

5 workdays per week · Heuristic, no published source

Planning convention for ramp cost.

0.3 share of loaded time lost in ramp · Heuristic, no published source

Productivity lost while a new chat agent ramps, priced into transition cost.

2 minutes · Threshold

Displaced contacts implied to average under this handle time mean the complexity curve is too severe for the volume moved. Disclosed, and holds completeness Directional.

0.1 USD per bot contact · Threshold

A bot fee at or below this, with bot volume shifted, makes any shift look costless and drives break-even toward zero. Disclosed, and holds completeness Directional.

1 percent resolution · Threshold

A break-even below this reads as a shift profitable at any resolution. Framing only. It is a property of the answer and reaches no confidence axis by doctrine 5.5.

21.53 USD per hour · Published source

The one agent wage benchmark the platform cites. Staffing, Cost per Contact and Channel Shift read it. It is the occupation median, no figure of the user's own, so a driver still at it grades evidence Directional. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025 (released 15 May 2026), SOC 43-4051 Customer Service Representatives, national median hourly wage.

1.3 multiple of hourly wage · Heuristic, no published source

Wage plus benefits and employer payroll burden, and nothing else. The narrowest of the three loads. Use it wherever a wage becomes a loaded hourly rate for unit metrics.

1.18 multiple of hourly wage · Heuristic, no published source

The variable cost that disappears when one contact goes away. The only load a saving may be valued on, because fixed technology and facilities do not fall with volume.

Worked example

Computed by the tool's own engine at its opening profile, with avoided hiring as the capacity action (75% of freed capacity). The tool itself opens with no action chosen, which realizes $0.

Volume: 100,000 contacts a month, voice 70% at 7 minutes, 60% of voice eligible

Shift: 10 points to chat (85% resolve, 80% displace, 10 minutes at 2.5 concurrent) and 10 points to bot (65% resolve, 70% displace, $0.50 a contact)

Cost: $21.53 an hour, marginal load 1.18, loaded 1.3; return factor 1.2; moderate curve; $1,500 training and 4 ramp weeks

Eligible voice

70,000 voice × 60% = 42,000; 20,000 shifted, within the pool

Displaced and bounced

chat 6,800 and bot 4,550 displace 11,350 voice calls; 5,000 bounce back

Residual and departing time

voice rises 4.3% to 7.30 minutes, so the departing calls average 5.45 minutes

Net minutes freed

23,205 a month (3.14 FTE)

Net realizable

$7,369 labor at 75% less $4,025 bot fees = $3,344 a month

Transition and payback

$12,771, paid back in 3.8 months

Verdict

Approve; break-even at 71% chat resolution against 85% modelled

What this tool cannot tell you

  • Resolution and displacement decide the answer, and both are usually estimated before a pilot. The break-even line shows how much room the plan has.
  • The residual curve is a planning assumption. The departing handle time it implies is shown so it can be checked against the calls you plan to move.
  • This is an operating-capacity model. It does not value what an interaction is worth to the business, and the full investment case belongs in the Business Case Builder.
  • Chat and email minutes are handle time divided by concurrency; a queue that does not reach that concurrency costs more.
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How to cite

The Center of CX, "Channel Shift Model method", version 1.2, 28 September 2026, https://www.contactcentercx.com/methodology/channel-shift