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AI Deflection Reality Check

What does an AI resolution rate actually save you?

A 70% AI resolution rate is measured on the conversations the bot handles, which are only part of your customer demand. This tool separates three rates, each with its own denominator: coverage (how much demand a bot could handle), resolution (how much of the bot's traffic it resolves) and durable automation (how much of your total volume goes away for good). It then values what is left at the cost that actually leaves your budget. Sometimes the program pays. Sometimes the claim is inflated, and the right move is to renegotiate, fix the foundation first, or buy nothing.

Question 1 of 2 · Your environment

Run Cost per Contact first if you can: it supplies the cost basis. Eligibility describes your demand, whichever vendor you pick, so both assumption sets below share it. Marginal cost is the basis for every saving on this page. Every formula, constant and a worked example are in the published method.

$
$
0 assumes 60% of loaded, $4.20
%
of total, automatable
Question 2 of 2 · The claim being tested
%
of AI-involved
%
of apparent resolutions
%
contacts after a bot cost more
$
hits Year 1 only
$/mo
$/mo
hrs
$/hr
hrs/mo
$/hr

Coverage, resolution, and net automation

Three rates, each with its own denominator. The vendor's headline is apparent resolution. Your budget moves with durable net automation. The starting values are illustrative planning values and describe no particular operation or vendor. Replace them with your own figures.

Total demand80,000 / mo · everything that reaches you
AI-eligible and routed44,000 / mo · 55% of total demand
Apparent resolutions28,600 / mo · 65% of AI-involved
Durable net automation23,452 / mo · 29.3% of total demand

The vendor's 65% resolution is a share of AI-involved conversations. Against your total demand it is 29.3%. A resolution rate means little until you know its denominator.

Vendor claim
$364K
65% at $7.00 loaded
Net savings a month
-$35K
net cost
Net automation
29.3%
of total demand
Dollars realized
-10%
of the vendor's claim
The decision this protects

Choose a capacity action first

Freed agent time counts as $0 until you say how it becomes cash: reduced overtime, avoided hiring, less outsourced volume or fewer seats. Operating cost and the escalation premium are cash either way and are already counted. Choose the action above and the decision appears.

What decided this: net -$35,275 a month, upside case -$27,107 a month, eligibility 55%, evidence internal estimate or benchmark, capacity action not selected. Change any of them and the verdict can change.

How sure
Evidence
Directional
Internal estimate or benchmark
Realization
Directional
Not selected
Completeness
Finance-grade
Model is whole

Bound by evidence and realization. Monthly volume, AI-eligible demand, apparent resolution, repeat and false resolution and escalation premium are still at the tool default. Marginal cost and platform fee are still at the tool default. No capacity action is selected, so no freed capacity converts to cash. Net savings carry a plus or minus 25% band at this evidence level, -$26K to -$44K per month.

This grade is self-declared. It reflects what you have told this tool about your sources. No document, payroll file or pilot dataset has been reviewed here. Independent validation of the inputs is a separate step.

Rail handoff

This is the one tool on the site that produces a realistic deflection rate. Two figures are now available to the other tools, and each has its own denominator.

29.3% net automation
Share of your total contact volume the bot removes for good. This is the deflection figure to report.
53.3% bot resolution
Share of the volume you route to the bot that is resolved for good. Channel Shift Economics uses it to size the team of agents that remains.

Integrity flags · 5 issues

High
Check thisMarginal cost was not supplied, so it was assumed at 60% of loaded cost, $4.20 per contact. Every savings figure on this page rests on that one assumption, and it holds confidence at Directional. Run Cost per Contact and come back to replace it.
High
Check thisDenominator check. The bot resolves 65% of the conversations it is involved in, but that is 29.3% of your total demand, because only 55% of demand is eligible and 18% of apparent resolutions recur. A quoted 65% describes resolution of AI-involved conversations, while your budget moves with net automation of total demand. Confirm which denominator the quoted rate uses before you rely on it.
High
Check thisThe escalation premium of 25% is moving $21,575 a month, which is more than half the size of the net result. That constant is a directional starting value. Replace it with your own handle time on escalated contacts compared with your normal handle time before this figure carries weight.
High
Check thisImplementation cost is zero. If the vendor charges a one-time fee for the build, integration or professional services, the Year 1 figure is optimistic by exactly that amount, and the real payback comes later than shown.
Unknown
Your choice is still openNo capacity action is selected, so realized savings are $0. Operating cost and the escalation premium are still cash out the door, so the result shows a loss.
High
Check thisThis program never breaks even at any resolution rate. Operating cost and the escalation premium exceed the realistic savings the bot can produce at this eligibility, volume and marginal cost.

Vendor claim to reality

Every subtraction, in order, starting from the vendor-style figure: the resolution rate applied to all volume at loaded cost. The steps reconcile exactly to net monthly savings.

Vendor claim (resolution rate on all volume, loaded cost)+$364,000
Eligibility gap (only part of demand is automatable)-$163,800
Repeat and false resolution (apparent resolutions recur)-$36,036
Loaded to marginal (fixed cost does not fall)-$65,666
Capacity not converted to cash (Not selected)-$98,498
Escalation premium (post-bot contacts cost more)-$21,575
Operating cost (platform, QA, tuning, knowledge)-$13,700
Net monthly savings-$35,275

The escalation premium is a directional starting value. At 0% the net would be -$13,700 a month. At 50%, double what you entered, it would be -$56,851. That is a $43,151 swing across the plausible range, so measure your own handle time on escalated contacts before you lean on this line.

Year one, month by month

Year 1 (ramped 6mo)
-$369K
Annual at full run rate
-$423K
Payback
None
Mo 1net savings each month, dashed bars are a lossMo 12
Break-even resolution
never
your figure is 65%
Highest repeat rate that breaks even
0%
you entered 18%
Upside-case net
-$27K/mo
better resolution, fewer repeats

Three scenarios, named assumptions

Each scenario states the eligibility, resolution and repeat assumptions behind it, so you can see exactly what has to be true to reach it.

Conservative
-$36K/mo
17.7% net automation of total
eligible 44% · resolution 55% · repeat 27%
Expected
-$35K/mo
29.3% net automation of total
eligible 55% · resolution 65% · repeat 18%
Stretch
-$30K/mo
41.6% net automation of total
eligible 61% · resolution 75% · repeat 9%

What it means

Start with the denominator. The quoted 65% resolution is measured on the conversations the bot takes part in. Against your total demand the bot removes 29.3% for good, because 55% of your volume is eligible and 18% of apparent resolutions come back. A finance team that approves against 65% and sees 29.3% in the results will notice the gap within a quarter.

You have not supplied a marginal cost per contact, so the tool assumed $4.20, sixty percent of loaded. Every dollar figure on this page moves in proportion to that number. It is the one input worth thirty minutes with your finance partner before you share this analysis.

At these assumptions the program never breaks even. Operating cost and the escalation premium exceed the realistic savings at any resolution rate. Either the platform cost is too high for this volume, or eligibility is too low and repeats too high to overcome.

You have selected no capacity action, so realized savings are $0. The only cash moving is $13,700 of operating cost and $21,575 of escalation premium, a monthly loss of $35,275. Freed handle time becomes money when you reduce overtime, slow hiring, cut outsourced volume or reduce headcount. Choose one, or present this as added capacity and leave savings out of it.

Year 1 net of -$369,366 carries no implementation cost, because you entered none. Bot programs are rarely free to stand up. Whatever the vendor charges for integration, content build and professional services comes straight off that figure and pushes payback later than shown.

Ramp sensitivity. Year 1 reads -$369,366 over a 6 month ramp and -$423,305 at full run rate from month one, a difference of $53,939.

Decision: Choose a capacity action first. Freed agent time counts as $0 until you say how it becomes cash: reduced overtime, avoided hiring, less outsourced volume or fewer seats. Operating cost and the escalation premium are cash either way and are already counted. Choose the action above and the decision appears.

How others report it

Published figures to hold your result against. Each measures something slightly different, so read what it counts before you compare. None of them changes your result or its grade.

Self-service and AI resolutionSurvey of people

Three different questions asked of different people; none is a containment rate. Vendor-defined resolution rates are left out.

  • 14%Issues fully resolved in self-serviceCustomers' own account of their last issue.Gartner, 19 Aug 2024. Gartner Survey Finds Only 14% of Customer Service Issues Are Fully Resolved in Self-Service (survey of 5,728 customers, December 2023).
  • 18%Web chats handled without a human agent, USBenchmark studyReported by centers; 6% in 2020.ContactBabel, 2026. The 2026 US Contact Center Decision-Makers' Guide, key findings.
  • 30%Service cases handled by AIService professionals' own estimate.Salesforce, 13 Nov 2025. State of Service, 2025 (survey of 6,500 service professionals in 39 countries, April to June 2025).
Channel mix and preferenceBenchmark study

What centers handle and what customers say they prefer are different measures; they are shown apart.

  • 62%Live telephony, share of inbound, end of 2024Email about 19%, web chat 8%, telephony self-service 9%.ContactBabel, read on Contact Center Pipeline, 14 Aug 2025. The 2025 US Contact Center Decision-Makers' Guide, as reported in "The Great Contact Center Standoff".
  • 35%Phone as the preferred channel, US adultsSurvey of peopleEmail 23%, live chat 10%, in person 8%, chatbot 1%.YouGov, 13 Mar 2025. How Americans prefer to contact businesses for customer service.

Take this with you

EvidenceDirectionalRealizationDirectionalCompletenessFinance-gradeHeadlineDirectional

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Method 1.2, published 30 September 2026. How this is calculated

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Each result raises a sharper question. This is the diagnostic that answers it.

Business Case →
Carry the net automation number into a case with payback and risk.

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Net savings a month
-$35,275
No capacity action chosen yet, so freed time counts as $0 and only the costs show. Choose one to see the saving.
How sureDirectionalHeld by evidence and realizationShows the direction and rough size. Something behind it is still a default, an estimate or an open choice.
The decision this protects
Choose a capacity action first
Vendor claim a month65% at $7.00 loaded$364K
Year 1 net-$369K
PaybackNone in 12 months
Dollars realizedof the vendor's claim-10%
Net savings a month-$35KSee the result